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Friday, August 14, 2015

WPI inflation dips to historical low of (-) 4.1% in July 2015

WPI inflation remain in negative zone for ninth straight month in July 2015 

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation dipped further into sub-zero level (-) 4.05% in July 2015 compared with May 2015. The WPI inflation continued to be in negative zone for the ninth straight month in July 2015. As per the revised data, the inflation figure for May 2015 was scaled up to (-) 2.2% from (-) 2.4% reported provisionally. 

Inflation of primary articles declined (-) 3.7%, while that for manufactured products slipped to (-) 1.5% in July 2015. The inflation of fuel items also plunged to (-) 12.8% in July 2015 from (-) 10.0% in May 2015. 

As per major commodity group-wise, almost all commodity groups recorded decline in inflation in July 2015. Inflation eased of food grains, fruits, vegetables, spices, oilseeds, flowers, iron ore, mineral oils, sugar, edible oils, beverages, leather products, rubber and plastic products, chemical products, non-metallic mineral products and basic metals in July 2015. 

On the other hand, inflation increased for fish, raw jute, crude oil, bakery products, textiles item and wood products in July 2015. 

Inflation of food items (food articles and food products) turned negative at (-) 1.4% in July 2015 from 1.9% in June 2015. Meanwhile, inflation of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) dipped to (-) 5.2% in July 2015 from (-) 4.1% in June 2015. 

Core inflation (manufactured products excluding foods products) declined to (-) 1.4% in July 2015 from (-) 1% in May 2015. 

The contribution of primary articles to the overall inflation, at (-) 4.1%, was (-) 102 basis points (bps) in July 2015 compared with (-) 21 bps in June 2015. The contribution of manufactured products was (-) 81 bps compared with (-) 43 bps, while that of fuel product group was (-) 222 bps against (-) 174 bps in June 2015. 

The contribution of food items (food articles and food products) to inflation stood at (-) 40 bps in (-) 4.05% compared with 55 bps to (-) 2.4% in June 2015. Meanwhile, the contribution of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) was (-) 364 bps in July 2015 compared with (-) 293 bps in June 2015. 

As per commodity-wise look-up, the contribution of diesel dipped 30 bps, while of mango and brinjal also declined by 17 bps each, sugar and cabbage 10 bps each, and banana 07 bps. Further, the contribution of naphtha, okra, onion and furnace oil fell 06 bps each, while that of petrol, betelnut and grey cement eased 04 bps each. The share of vanaspati, papaya, rose, rice, copra (coconut) fell 03 bps each, while that of iron ore, coconut(fresh), soyabean, HRC, gold & gold ornaments, dye & dye intermediates also declined 02 bps each. Further, the contribution of groundnut seed, rebars, other oil cakes, guar seed, aviation turbine fuel, pvc insulated cable, maize, tea leaf (blended), polyester yarn, gingelly seed (sesamum), other leather foot wear, light diesel oil, jowar, chillies(dry) etc decreased 01 bps each in July 2015 over June 2015. 

On the other hand, the contribution to the overall inflation of fish inland increased by 17 bps, followed by crude petroleum 09 bps in June 2015. The share of gram, cotton yarn, fodder and fish-marine moved up 02 bps. The share of slag cement, tea, motor cycle / scooter / moped, raw jute, marbles, garlic, cotton yarn (dyed), plywood board, tea leaf (unblended), ball/roller bearing, biscuit / cookies, mustard & rapeseed oil, tapioca rose 01 bp each in June 2015. 

Of the 676 commodities, the inflation rate of about 222 commodities, which carry 32% weight in the WPI, increased in July 2015 compared with the June 2015 inflation rate. About 196 commodities, holding 51.4% weight in the WPI, witnessed a decline in the inflation rate. However, the inflation rate was unchanged for 158 commodities, carrying 16.7% weight in WPI, in June 2015. 
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