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Monday, March 16, 2015

WPI inflation dips to 37-years low of (-) 2.1% in February 2015

Inflation for December 2014 was revised down to (-) 0.5% from 0.1%reported earlier
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation dipped to 37-year low of (-) 2.1% in February 2015 compared with the earlier lowest reading of (-) 2.3% in May 1978. Meanwhile, the inflation for December 2014 was revised down to (-) 0.5% from 0.1%reported earlier. The WPI inflation remains in negative zone for the fourth straight month. 

The inflation declined for all three major sub-groups in February 2015 with the inflation fuel products easing to (-) 14.7% in February 2015 from (-) 10.7% in January 2015. Inflation of manufactured products also eased to 0.3% from 1.1%. Meanwhile, inflation of primary articles also eased from five-month high of 3.3% in January 2015 to 1.4% in February 2015.

As per major commodity group-wise inflation, inflation declined for vegetables, milk, raw cotton, oilseeds, fodder, crude petroleum, fuel products, cashew kernel, textiles, plastic products, chemical products and ferrous metals, contributing to the decline in inflation in February 2015. 

On the other hand, inflation increased for food grains, fish, mutton, poultry chicken, spices, flowers, iron ore, oil cakes, cement and automotive, restricting the overall decline in inflation in February 2015. 

Inflation for food items (food articles and food products) eased to 5.6% in February 2015 from 5.9% in January 2015. Meanwhile, inflation for non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) declined to (-) 5.0% from (-) 2.9%. 

Core inflation (manufactured products excluding foods products) eased to 0.1% from 0.9%.
The contribution of primary articles to the overall inflation declined to 38 basis points, or bps, at (-) 2.06% in February 2015 from 88 bps to (-) 0.39% in January 2015. The contribution of the fuel product group dipped to (-) 260 bps) from (-) 189 bps, while that of manufactured products eased to 18 bps from 58 bps. 

The contribution of food items (food articles and food products) to inflation eased to 156 bps to (-) 2.06% from 167 bps in January 2015. On the other hand, the contribution of non-food items (all commodities excluding food items) dipped to (-) 362 bps in February 2015 compared with (-) 210 bps in January 2015. 

As per revised data available, inflation for December 2014 was scaled down to (-) 0.5% from 0.1% reported provisionally. 

As per the commodity-wise look-up, the contribution to overall inflation of crude petroleum dipped 38 bps, high-speed diesel 37 bps, furnace oil 09 bps, naphtha 08, milk 07, and brinjal 06 bps in February 2015 from the January 2015 level. The share of petrol and okra declined 05 bps each, while that of raw cotton, bitumen and fodder also fell 04 bps each. 

Further, the share of cabbage, polymers, non-cyclic compound, soyabean, cashew kernel declined 03 bps each, while that of Tomato, aviation turbine fuel, petrochemical building blocks, dye & dye intermediates, HRC, lemon, organic manure, tapioca, light diesel oil, pencil ingots, cotton yarn (bleached), pineapple fell 02 bps each in February 2015. 

On the other hand, the contribution of onion increased 08 bps, while it also moved up for poultry chicken by 05 bps and iron ore by 04 bps. Further, the contribution of fish-inland, rose, and grey cement increased 03 bps each, while that of fish-marine, betelnut/arecanut, gram, banana, mutton moved up 02 bps. The contribution of garlic, tea dust (unblended), ghee, cashew nut, groundnut oil, other oil cakes, cauliflower, rape & mustard seed, coconut(fresh), raw rubber, groundnut seed, bricks & tiles rose 01 bp each. 

Of the 676 commodities, the inflation rate increased for about 213 commodities, which carry 26.7% weight in the WPI, in February 2015 compared with the January 2015 inflation rate. About 328 commodities, holding 60.1% weight in the WPI, witnessed a decline in the inflation rate in February 2015. However, the inflation rate was unchanged for 135 commodities, carrying 13.1% weight in WPI in February 2015.

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