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Monday, March 23, 2015

India will have normal monsoon in 2015, predicts study

Major spell of rainfall expected next month in North India; Damage to Rabi crop shall continue 

India might get normal monsoon rainfall at 102 per cent of long-period average during June-September this year, noted a just concluded ASSOCHAM-Skymet Weather joint study. 

“However some pockets that might be deficient (by a narrow margin) include Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Marathwada, Rayalseema, South Interior Karnataka, North Tamil Nadu and parts of the North East,” noted a study titled ‘Monsoon 2015: Agri-business Risk or Opportunity,' conducted by The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) and weather forecasting company Skymet. 

“A devolving El Nino in Monsoon 2015 will most probably not impact it negatively as droughts seem to happen where there is an evolving El Nino episode,” said Mr D.S. Rawat, secretary general of ASSOCHAM while releasing the findings of the study. 

“Thus forecast of normal Monsoon this year seems well distributed uniformly throughout the country,” said Mr Rawat. 

“Chance of a back to back drought is three per cent (2014 was a mild meteorological drought), besides there is still no clear signal about the emergence of an Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during Monsoon,” said Mr Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet. 

According to calculations (assuming an error margin of +/-4%) of ASSOCHAM-Skymet study, the following is Monsoon's risk spread over the four-month period of JJAS: 

  • 6% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
  • 36% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
  • 52% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA) 
  • 4% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA) 
  • 2% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is below 90% of the LPA)
“More wet weather was in the offing in April and the damage to the Rabi crop would continue,” highlighted the ASSOCHAM-Skymet study. 
 
“A major rainfall spell is expected in the first week of April in North India,” added the study.
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