S&P warns that it may lower the rating if the government's structural reform agenda stalls
Outlook revision reflects view that India's improved political setting offers a conducive environment for reforms, which could boost growth prospects and improve fiscal management.
The ratings on India reflect the country's strong external profile, combined with its democratic institutions and free press, both of which underpin policy stability and predictability. These strengths are balanced against the vulnerabilities stemming from the country's low per capita income and weak public finances.
India's external position is a key credit strength. The country has relatively little external debt and a much improved external liquidity position. S&P project that, at the fiscal year end of March 2015, external debt net of external assets will be 6% of current account receipts (CARs). Central bank reserves well exceed public sector external debt, reflecting the public sector's ability to finance practically all of its borrowing requirement domestically. On a broader definition, India's net external liabilities are a low 49% of CARs based on projections at the end of the current fiscal year in March 2015, and nearly half of gross external liabilities consist of inbound foreign direct investments.
India's current account has improved in recent years after restrictions on gold imports and slower domestic investment demand. At the same time, the central bank rebuilt its foreign currency reserves to cover about 5.5 months of current account payments. Although S&P expect the current account deficit to widen from its current low of 1.8% of GDP (as of March 2014) as investment picks up, gross external financing needs are likely to remain at or below the sum of CARs plus usable reserves in the next two to three years.
India's well-entrenched democratic political system is another credit support. That, along with the country's mature and stable institutions (including free press) and system of checks and balances, has afforded India a long period of stability. Although the paralyzing effect of legislative gridlock can blunt government effectiveness, outlook revision indicates that S&P believe the current government's strong mandate will enable it to implement many of its administrative, fiscal, and economic reforms.
India's low wealth level, as measured by per capita GDP, is one of the main constraints on the rating. At US$1,550, India's per capita GDP implies a narrow tax and funding base upon which the sovereign can draw to carry a given debt burden, and a lower degree of policy flexibility in the event that dramatic measures are needed to address severe economic stress. Real per capita GDP growth, a measure of the economy's capacity to increase wealth, has dipped to about 4% currently, from an average of 7.2% in the five years to the end of the fiscal year ended March 2011. S&P believe the current administration will remedy, to varying degrees, the growth impediments--policy paralysis, energy supply bottlenecks, and administrative obstacles. The government's actions will likely add momentum to the incipient cyclical upswing evident in the economy. S&P project real per capita GDP growth to reach 5% by next year, and per capita GDP to surpass US$2,000 by 2017.
India's weak public finances are manifested in a long history of general government fiscal deficits, averaging 8.8% of GDP over the past 20 years, and an accumulated net general government debt stock of close to 70% of GDP. Prior governments have not been able to broaden India's revenue base (with general government revenue at about 21% of GDP, of which only half are taxes) or trim expenditure. India's budget is saddled with extensive subsidies for food, energy, and fertilizer.
More than 90% of general government debt is denominated in rupees. This debt stock is primarily held by domestic banks and other financial institutions, often for regulatory requirements. The Indian government's foreign currency debt comes from official lenders. Thus S&P see little foreign exchange or roll-over risk for the government. Although real interest rates have been consistently negative, the interest cost on government debt amounts to almost a quarter of government revenues. Fiscal flexibility is further constrained by the general shortage of infrastructure and basic government services.
S&P expect the new administration to adhere to its stated fiscal consolidation program, even though S&P acknowledge that planned revenues may not fully materialize and subsidy cuts may be delayed. S&P expect improved fiscal performance in the medium term primarily from revenue-side improvements brought about by the planned introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and administrative efforts to expand the tax base. S&P project net general government debt to decline to below 60% of GDP by the year ending March 2018, and with it, general government interest rate expense to just under 20% of revenues.
A faster pace of deficit and debt reduction is unlikely. Hence, S&P believe fiscal and debt metrics are set to remain key rating constraints for some time.
The stable outlook for the next 24 months reflects a view that the new government has both the willingness and capacity to implement reforms necessary to restore some of India's lost growth potential, consolidate its fiscal accounts, and permit the Reserve Bank of India to carry out effective monetary policy. S&P could raise the rating if the economy reverts to a real per capita GDP trend growth of 5.5% per year and fiscal, external, or inflation metrics improve. Conversely, S&P may lower the rating if the government's structural reform agenda stalls such that economic growth does not accelerate, or fiscal and debt ratios fail to improve.
