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Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Morgan Stanley raises India's GDP growth forecast to 5.7% for FY2015

Rolls out FY2017 GDP growth forecast at 7% 

Morgan Stanley has raised India's GDP growth forecast to 5.7% for FY2015 from 5.4% earlier, as government's effort to implement policy actions to improve the growth mix (reviving productive investment and cutting back less effective redistributive policies) boosted its confidence that the economy is on track to transition to higher growth and lower inflation. 

Morgan Stanley has also rolling out FY2017 growth forecast expecting GDP growth to accelerate to 7% from 6.5% in FY2016 (unchanged from our earlier forecast). 

As per the Morgan Stanley, the non-agricultural growth has picked up as indicated by the acceleration in industrial production and export growth over the last three-four months. Morgan Stanley also observed signs of gradual recovery across all components of growth – consumption, investment and exports. 

Morgan Stanley believes that corrective policy action taken up by the government over the last 18 months is helping to gradually reverse factors, which were causing distortion in the productivity dynamic. 

Morgan Stanley believes the upside and downside risks to our forecasts will be influenced by two key factors the pace of policy actions to revive the productivity dynamic and the strength of external demand recovery. As per the Morgan Stanley, risks to its growth forecasts are slightly tilted to the upside.
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