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Monday, January 05, 2015

Asia Pacific Market: Amid Greece concerns stocks edged lower today

Amid divergent trend among various index constituents, key equity benchmark indices registered small losses on the first trading day of the week. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, failed to retain the psychological 28,000 level. Earlier, initial gains had helped the Sensex move past the psychological 28,000 mark in intraday trade. The Sensex fell 45.58 points or 0.16% to settle at 27,842.32. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. Asian and European stocks fell amid concern Greece will exit the common euro currency union. 

Key benchmark indices snapped their six-day winning streak today, 5 January 2015.
Global crude oil prices hit 5-1/2-year low. Deregulation of diesel price announced by the Indian government in October 2014 and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices over the past few months will help reduce the government's fuel subsidy burden and help contain its fiscal deficit. The steep slide in global crude oil prices will also help India in containing its current account deficit and fuel price inflation. India imports 80% of its crude oil requirement. However, a weakness in rupee against the dollar will restrict the benefit of falling global crude oil prices to that extent. A weak rupee raises the cost of imports. 

Shares of public sector oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) advanced on decline in global crude oil prices. Shares of state-run upstream oil exploration companies rose on hopes of lower subsidy burden as crude oil prices declined.
 
Earlier, the 50-unit CNX Nifty had hit 4-week high and the Sensex had hit its highest level in almost four weeks in morning trade. 

Foreign portfolio investors bought shares worth a net Rs 263 crore from the secondary equity markets during the previous trading session on Friday, 2 January 2015. 

In overseas markets, European shares edged lower in choppy trade amid concern Greece will exit the common euro currency union. Asian stocks edged lower amid concern Greece will exit the European currency union. Key equity benchmark indices in the US closed flat for the day on Friday, 2 January 2015, after giving back intraday gains following disappointing reports on US manufacturing and construction. 

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar in choppy trade.
Brent crude futures hit 5-1/2-year low as worries about a surplus of global supplies amid weak demand continued to drag on oil markets. 

The S&P BSE Sensex fell 45.58 points or 0.16% to settle at 27,842.32, its lowest closing level since 1 January 2015. The index fell 101.05 points at the day's low of 27,786.85 in late trade. The index jumped 176.59 points at the day's high of 28,064.49 in morning trade, its highest level since 9 December 2014. 

The CNX Nifty fell 17.05 points or 0.2% to settle at 8,378.40, its lowest closing level since 1 January 2015. The index hit a low of 8,363.90 in intraday trade. The index hit a high of 8,445.60 in intraday trade, its highest level since 8 December 2014. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 16.97 points or 0.16% to settle at 10,547.17. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 12.06 points or 0.11% to settle at 11,320.21. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 

The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. On BSE, 1,545 shares gained and 1,420 shares fell. A total of 124 shares were unchanged. 

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 2718 crore, lower than Rs 2992.80 crore during the previous trading session on Friday, 2 January 2015. 

The S&P BSE Power index (down 0.17%), the S&P BSE Bankex (down 0.25%), the S&P BSE Healthcare index (down 0.26%), the S&P BSE Metal index (down 0.45%), the S&P BSE IT index (down 1.01%) and the S&P BSE Teck index (down 1.07%) underperformed the Sensex. 

The S&P BSE Auto index (up 1.14%), the S&P BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.11%), the S&P BSE Capital Goods index (up 0.73%), the S&P BSE Realty index (up 0.22%), the S&P BSE FMCG index (up 0.22%) and the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.05%), outperformed the Sensex. 

Meanwhile, according to reports, the government is likely to allow private firms to build and operate critical railway lines connecting Coal India mines to power, steel and cement projects. The proposal, agreed 'in-principal' by the railway and coal ministries, will allow private companies to charge fee from the users of the rail links, similar to the toll charged by highway developers, reports suggested. 

On the second and last day of the summit on Saturday, 3 January 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said banks would be run professionally, and there would be no interference. But accountability was essential. He said the government had no vested interest, and public sector banks can derive strength from this fact. The Prime Minister said that banks in India should actually compete for achieving maximum cashless transactions, as this would be the best solution to the problem of black money. Speaking at the summit, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that banks have a major role to play in the financing of infrastructure. 

Jaitley said that the government is open to bold decisions for professionalization of the management and autonomy in decision making, rewarding merit, and relooking at the recruitment process at the top management level of PSBs. The government was ready to protect commercial decisions so as to avoid the delay in good decisions, Jaitley said. 

Earlier, Chief Economic Advisor to the finance ministry Dr. Arvind Subramanian proposed that the PSBs should be differentiated into weak, good and strong categories and accordingly consolidation and restructuring measures could be applied to them. The current overhang of stressed assets should be resolved by distribution of the pain between promoters, creditors and tax payers, Dr. Subramanian said. 

Reserve Bank of India Governor Dr. Raghuram Rajan stated that there is a need for internationalisation of the banking system in the current global environment. In the short term (up to 12 months), he said that there was need to clean up the NPAs and then restructure other stressed loans so as to put the economy back on the track. 

In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar in choppy trade. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 63.345, compared with its close of 63.29 during the previous trading session on Friday, 2 January 2015. 

Brent crude futures hit 5-1/2-year low as worries about a surplus of global supplies amid weak demand continued to drag on oil markets. Brent for February settlement was off 85 cents at $55.57 a barrel. The contract had declined 91 cents or 1.6% to settle at $56.42 a barrel during the previous trading session on Friday, 2 January 2015, its lowest settlement since 30 April 2009. 

HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics will release the HSBC India Services PMI for December 2014 tomorrow, 6 January 2015. 

European shares edged lower in choppy trade today, 5 January 2015, amid concern Greece will exit the currency union. Key indices in Germany, France and UK were off 0.17% to 0.59%. 

In Greece, political parties have embarked on a campaign for elections this month that may determine the fate of the country's membership in the euro currency area, with Der Spiegel magazine reporting German Chancellor Angela Merkel is ready to accept a Greek exit. 

Asian stocks edged lower today, 5 January 2015, amid concern Greece will exit the European currency union. Key indices in Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and Indonesia were off 0.24% to 1.26%. 

Mainland Chinese stocks rallied to their highest close in more than five years, led by strength in the energy and real-estate sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index surged 3.58% to end at 3,350.52, marking its biggest daily percentage gain in a month. Coal-related shares soared after several provincial governments adjusted their resource-tax rates as part of nationwide reforms of coal tax, aimed at reducing the burden on coal enterprises. Property shares also saw strong gains, as the Beijing government increased the cap on housing loans. 

In Japan, the final Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came at 52 in December, slightly less than a preliminary reading of 52.1 and unchanged from the final reading in November. 

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could fall 37 points at the opening bell today, 5 January 2015. US stocks ended near unchanged on Friday, 2 January 2015, with the S&P 500 down for a third session, after economic reports showed manufacturing slowing but still in expansion mode at the end of 2014. Factory activity in the United States grew at the slowest pace in six months in December 2014, weakened by declines in orders and production. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing managers, said on Friday, 2 January 2015, that its manufacturing index fell to 55.5 in December from 58.7 in November, which was just below a three-year high reached in October. 

Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota yesterday, 4 January 2015, said that the Federal Reserve should not be forced to adopt any set rules to determine how it makes monetary policy. Discretion is better than any rule, Kocherlakota said in discussing tying policy moves to data or other indicators. The Fed has information about inflation pressures that would be hard to boil down into a rule, Kocherlakota said during a talk at the American Economic Association meeting. 

On Wednesday, 7 January 2015, the Fed will release minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on 16 and 17 December 2014. The Fed minutes may shed light on policy makers' views on the appropriate timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006 and the conditions that would prompt them to tighten policy. At the two-day meeting in December, the FOMC had said it would be patient on the timing of an increase, replacing an earlier pledge to keep borrowing costs low for a "considerable time". 

The US Labor Department reports monthly payroll data for December 2014 on Friday, 9 January 2015.  

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