The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation has
released the new series of national accounts, revising the base year
from 2004-05 to 2011-12. The base year of national accounts was last
revised in January 2010.
Base year revisions differ from annual revisions in National Accounts
primarily because of nature of changes. In annual revisions, changes are
made only on the basis of updated data becoming available without
making any changes in the conceptual framework or using any new data
source, to ensure strict comparison over years. In case of base year
revisions, apart from a shift in the reference year for measuring the
real growth, conceptual changes, as recommended by the international
guidelines, are incorporated. Further, statistical changes like
revisions in the methodology of compilation, adoption of latest
classification systems, and, inclusion of new and recent data sources
are also made. Changes are also made in the presentation of estimates
to improve ease of understanding for analysis and facilitate
international comparability.
Improvements as noted above, especially incorporation of new datasets,
have resulted in a correction in the level of GDP, which is likely to
affect a wide range of indicators where it is used as a reference point:
for instance, trends in public expenditure, taxes and public sector
debt that are conventionally analysed in terms of their ratios to
nominal GDP. It may be noted that the level of revision in the present
base revision is not large enough to affect any of these ratios
significantly.
Users are requested to note that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor
cost will no longer be discussed in the press releases. As is the
practice internationally, industry-wise estimates will be presented as
Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices, while ‘GDP at market prices'
will henceforth be referred to as GDP. Estimates of GVA at factor cost
(earlier called GDP at factor cost) can be compiled by using the
estimates of GVA at basic prices and production taxes less subsidies as
given in Statement 3.1 of this note. For the years 2011-12, 2012-13 and
2013-14, GVA at factor cost have been compiled and are presented in
Statements 10.1 & 10.2.
The salient features of the key macro-economic aggregates are indicated in the following paragraphs.
Gross Domestic Product
GDP for the base year 2011-12 is estimated as Rs. 88.3 lakh
crore. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2012-13 is
estimated as Rs. 99.9 lakh crore while that for the year 2013-14 is
estimated as Rs. 113.5 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 13.1 percent
and 13.6 percent during the years 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively.
Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices stands at Rs.92.8 lakh
crore and Rs.99.2 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2012-13 and
2013-14, showing growth of 5.1 percent during 2012-13, and 6.9 percent
during 2013-14.
Industry-wise Analysis
The percentage changes in the Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices
in different sectors of the economy are presented in Statements 4.1 and
4.2. At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices increased by
13.2 percent during 2013-14, as against 12.9 percent during 2012-13
(Statement 1.1). In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12)
basic prices, there has been a growth of 6.6 percent in 2013-14, as
against growth of 4.9 percent in 2012-13.
The growth in GVA during 2013-14 has been higher than that in 2012-13
due to higher growth in ‘trade & repair services' (14.3%),
‘communication and services related to broadcasting' (13.4%), ‘other
services' (10.7%), ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing' (3.7%),
‘construction' (2.5%) and ‘public administration & defence' (4.9%).
Net National Income
Nominal Net National Income (NNI) for the year 2011-12 stands at Rs.
78.5 lakh crore, while the estimates for the years 2012-13 and 2013-14
are Rs. 88.4 lakh crore and Rs. 100.6 lakh crore, showing an increase of
12.7 percent and 13.7 percent during 2012-13 and 2013-14 rsepectively.
Gross National Disposable Income
Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated
as Rs.90.6 lakh crore for the year 2011-12, while the estimates for the
years 2012-13 and 2013-14 stand at 102.2 lakh crore and Rs.116.0 lakh
crore, respectively.
Saving
Gross Saving during 2011-12 is estimated as Rs.29.9 lakh crore, and the
estimates for the years 2012-13 and 2013-14 are Rs. 31.8 lakh crore and
Rs. 34.8 lakh crore respectively. Rate of Saving to GNDI for the years
2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 is estimated as 33.0 percent, 31.1 percent
and 30.0 percent respectively.
The highest contributor to the Gross Saving is the household sector,
with a share of 59.4 percent in the year 2013-14. However, the share has
declined from 67.3 percent in 2011-12 and 63.4 percent in 2012-13. This
decline can be attributed to the decline in household savings in
physical assets, which has declined from Rs.13.4 lakh crore in 2011-12
to Rs. 12.1 lakh crore in 2013-14. On the other hand, the share of
Non-Financial Corporations has increased from 29.3 percent in 2011-12 to
34.5 percent in 2013-14. The share of Financial Corporations has been
around 9 percent in all these years, while the dis-saving of General
Government has decreased from 5.4 percent in 2011-12 to 3.2 percent in
2013-14.
Capital Formation
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current and constant prices is
estimated by two approaches – (i) through flow of funds, derived as
Gross Saving plus net capital inflow from abroad; and (ii) by the
commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets. The estimates of
GCF through the flow of funds approach are treated as the firmer
estimates, and the difference between the two approaches is taken as
“errors and omissions”. However, GCF by industry of use and by
institutional sectors does not include “valuables”, and therefore, these
estimates are lower than the estimates available from commodity flow.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated as Rs. 33.7
lakh crore for the year 2011-12, while the estimates for both the years
2012-13 and 2013-14 stand at Rs. 36.6 lakh crore. Since GCF did not
increase during 2013-14, the rate to GDP declined during the year to
32.3 percent as against 36.6 during 2012-13. The rate of GCF to GDP
excluding valuables stands at 33.9 percent and 31 percent during 2012-13
and 2013-14 respectively. The rate of capital formation in the years
2011-12 to 2013-14 has been higher than the rate of saving because of
net capital inflow from Rest of the World (ROW).
In terms of the share to the total GCF (at current prices), the highest
contributor is Non-Financial Corporations, with the share rising
steadily from 46.6 percent in 2011-12 to 51.5 percent in 2013-14. Share
of household sector in GCF is also significant, which has declined from
42 percent in 2011-12 to 34.2 percent in 2013-14. The share of General
Government in GCF has increased from 10 percent in 2011-12 to 13.2
percent in 2013-14.
The rate of Gross Capital Formation at constant (2011-12) prices has decreased from 37.2 in 2012-13 to 33.4 in 2013-14.
Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed
Capital Formation (GFCF) amounted to Rs. 33.7 lakh crore in 2013-14 as
against Rs. 31.4 lakh crore and Rs. 29.7 lakh crore in 2012-13 and
2011-12 respectively. The change in stocks of inventories, at current
prices, decreased from Rs. 2.2 lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 1.8 lakh
crore in 2013-14, while the valuables decreased from Rs. 2.5 lakh crore
in 2011-12 to Rs. 1.5 lakh crore in 2013-14.
Consumption Expenditure
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices
is estimated at Rs. 50.9 lakh crore for the base year 2011-12,
increasing to Rs. 58.8 lakh crore in 2012-13 and further to Rs. 67.7
lakh crore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current
prices during 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 are estimated at 57.6
percent, 58.8 percent and 59.7 percent respectively.
At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 53.7 lakh
crore and Rs. 57.0 lakh crore for the years 2012-13 and 2013-14
respectively. The corresponding rates of PFCE for the years 2012-13 and
2013-14 are 57.9 percent and 57.5 percent respectively.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is estimated at Rs. 9.9
lakh crore for the year 2011-12. The estimates of GFCE at current
prices for the years 2012-13 and 2013-14 stand at Rs. 10.9 lakh crore
and Rs. 12.8 lakh crore, respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the
estimates of GFCE for the years 2012-13 and 2013-14 stand at Rs. 10.0
lakh crore and Rs. 10.9 lakh crore respectively.
Estimates at per capita level
For the purpose of estimation of Per Capita Income and Per Capita PFCE,
Population Projections compiled on the basis of Census 2011 have been
used. Per Capita Income at current prices, estimated as Per Capita Net
National Income at current prices, is estimated at Rs. 64316, Rs. 71593
and Rs. 80388 for the years 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively.
Correspondingly, Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years
2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 is estimated as Rs. 41728, Rs. 47572 and
Rs. 54133, respectively.
The upcoming releases on GDP are indicated below:
i. Advance Estimates for the year 2014-15 alongwith
quarterly estimates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2014-15 on February 9, 2015;
and
ii. Provisional Estimates for the year 2014-15
alongwith estimates for all the four quarters of the year on May 29,
2015.