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Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Export growth is expected to gain momentum with global recovery - Crisil Research

Evidence suggests that global demand is a far more important factor than exchange rate in driving export growth. Between fiscal 2004 and 2008, despite a 12.4% appreciation in the rupee India's merchandise exports grew at a whopping 25% per annum due to strong demand from advanced economies. In contrast, between fiscals 2009 to 2014, despite nearly 32% depreciation in the rupee India's export grew at a much slower pace of 12.4% per annum as growth in advanced economies decelerated sharply. Going ahead, IMF forecasts advanced economies growth to pick-up to 2.2% in 2014 from 1.3% in 2013. We expect faster growth in advanced economies to drive up India's exports despite a marginal appreciation in the rupee in recent weeks. 

Outlook for fiscal 2015 

In fiscal 2015, India's current account deficit is forecast to widen to $47 billion (2.2% of GDP). While export growth is expected to gain momentum with global recovery, imports too will rise as curbs on gold imports are withdrawn and imports of oil, consumption and investment goods rise with recovery in GDP growth.
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