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Monday, December 21, 2009

Gold Trying To Find Optimal Levels

COMEX Gold futures are trying to extend the recent spree of gains as Euro consolidated well above 1.4300 against the dollar in mid morning Asia trades. The Dollar's impressive run to a three and half month highs against the Euro had triggered a massive sell off in Gold last week but the commodity is well supported on ideas that safe haven demand would help cap the losses for prices after the futures tanked more than $130 from their all time highs in the last three weeks. 

Gold dropped in the fortnight ended 19 December with the local futures coming off Rs 17000 per 10 grams mark- an important barrier. The commodity continued a drop below after prices topped out at all time highs of $1230 per ounce as the US Dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies and a general wave of risk aversion in the global markets following worries over sovereign defaults and year end profit selling eroded the appeal of the yellow metal.

The commodity plummeted to a one month low on the COMEX Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange on 18th December before recovering. The most active gold contract for February delivery finished at 1,112.70 dollars an ounce on Friday. Earlier in the month, fueled by S&P's downgrade of Greece's credit rating and the possibility of more downgrades of Euro Zone sovereign debt, particularly Spain and Ireland, dollar surged to a fresh 3 and half month high against the Euro.

However, the lurch higher for the dollar has been no surprise as the greenback had displayed a persistent resistance to drop beyond 1.5000 against the Euro earlier. The dollar also received support from haven flows as traders had to cope with a couple of geopolitical-induced wobbles - namely, talk of an Iranian incursion into an Iraq oil field (initially denied, but later confirmed), and chatter about a possible coup in Pakistan.

However, the rebound from one month low should likely keep going for gold as it has acted as an opportunity to enter long for all those who missed out on the fabulous run in the commodity which rose nearly in a vertical manner after India's 200 tonne gold grab from the IMF provided strong cues about the central bankers diversifying their forex holdings into the yellow metal. Domestic gold market may also find the current drop to its benefit as traders get ready for the domestic wedding season demand to intensify in the days to come.

COMEX Gold rebounded to trade at $1115.60, up $4.80 per ounce or 0.43% from the previous close. There is a possibility of the prices rising as high as $1123-25 mark. Mondays have witnessed massive gyrations on either side for the commodity and generally set the tone for the entire week.MCX Gold futures for February trade at Rs 16974, up Rs 5 from the previous close and more gains look in the offing for the counter. Watch for a break above Rs 17000 in intraday moves with a test of Rs 17032-40 mark.
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