HOME         WEBSITE         SUBSCRIBE           E-GREETINGS   
                               

Friday, January 30, 2009

Bullion metals shine

Weak economic reports act as the catalyst

Dour and weak economic reports pushed gold prices higher on Thursday, 29 January, 2009. Gold prices also rose as it increased the appeal of the metal as a safe haven against alternate investment. Gold rose despite the strong dollar.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa. But silver prices dropped.

On Thursday, Comex Gold for February delivery rose $16.9 (1.9%) to close at $905.1 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold prices ended higher by 6.7%. This year gold has gained 3.1% till date. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (14%) since then.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for March delivery rose 38.2 cents (1.5%) to end at $12.145 an ounce. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

At the currency market on Wednesday, the dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, continued to rise. The dollar index rose 0.3% today.

Among major economic reports for the day, there were quite a few of them. The durable goods order, initial jobless claims data and December new home sales data all checked in below expectation.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 24 increased modestly to 588,000, which is a bit above the consensus estimate of 575,000 claims. Continuing claims climbed to 4.78 million. That is the highest level of continuing claims dating back to four decades.

December durable goods orders declined 2.6%. That was the fifth straight monthly decline reflecting an ongoing pullback in business investment. The drop was more than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down 3.6%.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

Last year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March 2008 as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the last move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 0.25% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in nine steps.

Prior to 2008, gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for February delivery closed higher by Rs 252 (1.8%) at Rs 14,146 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,172 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 13,753 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 238 (1.2%) higher at Rs 19,508/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 19,182/kg and rose to a high of Rs 19,580/Kg during the day's trading.

source: Capital Market

Blog Archive

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer - All investments in Mutual Funds and securities are subject to market risks and uncertainty of dividend distributions and the NAV of schemes may go up or down depending upon factors and forces affecting securities markets generally. The past performance of the schemes is not necessarily indicative of the future performance and may not necessarily provide a basis for comparison with other investments. Investors are advised to go through the respective offer documents before making any investment decisions. Prospective client(s) are advised to go through all comparable products in offer before taking any investment decisions. Mutual Funds and securities investments are subject to market risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the fund will be achieved. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. Decisions based on the information provided on this newsletter/document are for your own account and risk.


In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Varun Vaid has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the Varun Vaid and which may have been made available to Varun Vaid. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. Varun Vaid however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material no such party will assume any liability for the same. Varun Vaid does not in any way through this material solicit any offer for purchase, sale or any financial transaction/commodities/products of any financial instrument dealt in this material. All recipients of this material should before dealing and or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice.


Varun Vaid, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. All recipients of this material should before dealing and/or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice. The investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Any person subscribing to or investigating in any product/financial instruments should do soon the basis of and after verifying the terms attached to such product/financial instrument. Financial products and instruments are subject to market risks and yields may fluctuate depending on various factors affecting capital/debt markets. Please note that past performance of the financial products and instruments does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance there of. Such past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Varun Vaid, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation in the financial instruments/products/commodities discussed here in or act as advisor or lender / borrower in respect of such securities/financial instruments/products/commodities or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The said person may have acted upon and/or in a manner contradictory with the information contained here. No part of this material may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of Varun Vaid. This material is strictly confidential to the recipient and should not be reproduced or disseminated to anyone else.


Varun Vaid also does not take any responsibility for the contents of the advertisements published. Readers are advised to verify the contents on their own before acting there upon.


Published Credits goes to following sources & all the mentioned sources as footer below the published material- Bloomberg, Valueresearch Online, Capital Market, Navindia, Franklin Templeton, Kitco, SBI AMC, LIC AMC, JM Financial AMC, HDFC AMC, The Hindu, Business Line, Personal FN, Economic Times, Reuters, Outlook Money, Business Standard, Times of India etc.