HOME         WEBSITE         SUBSCRIBE           E-GREETINGS   
                               

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

How much is the world paying for petrol?

Energy consumption in India is amongst the highest in the world. Being the number two in terms of economic growth and population, India's energy needs will only grow. But with rising oil prices, India's oil imports could become a sticky situation for the government.

Despite government subsidies, high fuel prices have spiked the consumer inflation in India over the past few months. As of now, Indians pay Rs 63 per litre of petrol. The chart below shows that when compared to prices across the globe, the cost of petrol appears very skewed. While in Turkey a litre of petrol costs Rs 114.5, in Saudi Arabia the same costs Rs 5.35. In fact, in Venezuela, all you have to pay is 71 paise for a litre of petrol. India stands pretty much in the middle. However, China and the US comparatively pay much lesser for their fuel.


Data Source: Rediff

Business Columns FDs are hot, but stay with equities; Sebi, don't bring back loads

With commercial banks increasing their fixed deposit (FD) rates to double digits, a lot of citizens are moving towards this investment vehicle. And why not? The alternatives today are not confidence inspiring — markets have fallen by 15% in the past six months, gold and silver have moved into bubble territory, and land has taken its 20-35% leap over the past year. 

On the other side, inflation is eating into the purchasing power of money, pushing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to increase India's policy rates nine times in 13 months, the last one being a 50-basis-point increase in the repo rate (rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks) to 7.25% last Tuesday. 

That effort seems to be in vain, however — all that RBI and the government have been able to transmit are promises of lower inflation, but no real action. As a result, while borrowers are feeling the pinch of higher rates on their home loans, lenders are gradually rediscovering an old investment flame: fixed deposits (FDs). At more than 10%, FDs could give senior citizens the higher returns they're seeking at virtually zero risk. In the short term, say, for the next three years or so, that is probably a good idea.  

But in the longer term — and many senior citizens in their early 70s will live well into their 90s — fixed deposits may not be quite the place to park all that money. To protect their money from inflation, they must keep 25% or more in equities. For the young, it should be 75% and more. 

An economy that grows at a 'slower' rate of 8% that makes India the world's second-fastest growing economy after China means the earnings of the underlying organised sector companies that are listed will, on an average, grow by 20% or more. To miss this biggest-ever ride of Indian equities would be an investment error. The trouble is that investors confuse getting an 'equity exposure' with 'buying stocks'. The latter is best left to experts, brokers, fund managers. But as far as equity exposure is concerned, India today has the world's cheapest product — mutual funds — that investors must buy into. 

At an annual cost of less than 2% or less, you can get access to some of the best-performing mutual funds that deliver 20-50% returns every year. But unlike FDs, these returns are not consistent — they may fall in some bad years, could double or treble in very good years. But at the end of 20 years, you can expect a return of 15-20% — meaning you can multiply your money 30-fold.

From the noises I am hearing in newspapers through select leaks, however, it looks as if Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) under its new chairman UK Sinha is planning to reintroduce 'loads' — the price that an investor must pay while buying into an equity fund. Knowing the investor-friendly DNA of Sinha, I don't think he will succumb to the pressure of distributors to fatten their bottomlines.

Load was a burden previous Sebi chairman CB Bhave had ended, making mutual funds even better for investors. Following this, the equity assets of the industry fell by a statistically-insignificant 2%.

In fact, over the past 12 months, a new wave of investors, armed with systematic investment plans(a small amount, say R5,000 every month) have invested in mutual funds with a never-befre-seen enthusiasm. It is this set of investors that Sebi needs to keep in mind and serve as its primary constituency. 

Globally, this is where the markets are moving — UK plans to end entry loads on all financial products by 2012; other countries are going to follow. At a speech to financial planners from 23 countries I made last year in Taipei, I argued for two points. One, the world must learn from India and end all entry loads on financial products. And two, while financial planners must charge for the advice they give, they must be regulated. Instead of reintroducing loads, Sinha would do well to work towards regulating advisors.

source: HT

Aegon to exit India's mutual fund business

Dutch financial services group Aegon intends to surrender its licence to operate in India's mutual fund industry, which is going through its roughest patch following a string of regulatory restrictions. An Aegon official is said to have met capital market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) recently in this regard.

An email query to Aegon on why the group plans to exit India's mutual fund industry did not elicit a response till the time of going to the press. But sources in the mutual fund industry said Aegon no longer considers the asset management business in India as a 'strategic fit' for its growth plans in the country.

This is the first instance where a mutual fund has expressed its intention to the market regulator to give up its licence, industry officials said. "It's a little surprising. Despite the hurdles faced by fund houses, India continues to be one of the hottest emerging markets," said a fund manager with a private mutual fund.

Aegon is yet to launch a mutual fund product in India since receiving the li-cence from Sebi in October 2008 to start an asset management venture with New Delhi-based Religare Enterprises . But a month later, Aegon and Religare parted ways amid speculation of a rift between the two. The two companies continue to be partners in their life insurance joint venture, Aegon Religare Life Insurance .

Mutual fund industry officials said Aegon has been hunting for a partner, espe-cially a bank, for the asset management business since the split, but did not man-age to find one. The speculation is that the inability to find a joint venture partner could have contributed to the proposal to give up the mutual fund licence.

"Being a late entrant into industry, it was important for Aegon to get a partner with a decent network because it is really expensive and tedious to start afresh without distribution support," said an analyst, requesting anonymity.

Most foreign financial groups, which are part of India's 41-member strong asset management industry, have felt the need to partner a local bank, especially after the ban on mutual funds to charge investors to pay distributors an upfront fee, known as entry load. Distributors almost stopped selling mutual fund products after the move, affect-ing inflows into mutual fund equity schemes, which fetched them maximum fees.

Some mutual fund industry officials are surprised by Aegon's plan, as they feel the group is well-placed to take advantage of the offshore advisory business. Leading asset management companies nowadays are focusing more on their "offshore advisory" business, where they give research-based advice to foreign funds that invest in India for a fee.


SEBI to focus on new set of reforms

Sinha forms panels to address concerns on IPOs, mutual funds; warns local firms not following regulations

Retail investors occupy centre stage for capital market regulator U.K. Sinha, but their protection need not rob the market of its growth, something a section of market intermediaries says his predecessor C.B. Bhave had done.

“There has to be a market and then only you can protect the investors,” Sinha said on Friday in an interview. “If there is no industry and no market, then whom do you protect?”

Bhave is of the opinion that the industry could survive only when investors’ interest is protected.

The new chief of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is preparing for the second stage of reforms in the primary as well as the secondary market.

As the first step, he has instituted a few committees to look into issues such as the procedures of initial public offerings (IPOs) and the impact of the ban on the so-called entry fees on the Rs. 7 trillion mutual fund industry. Some of the committees are expected to submit reports in as early as six weeks.

Sinha is also emphatic that he would continue Sebi’s battle again local firms that are not following the rules of the game. Big companies can delay Sebi’s decisions because they have financial muscle and can fight hard, but the regulator will not be intimidated by them, he said.
“I would like people to know that be careful, Sebi is watching,” he said. “As a regulator, I would put my energy more on deterrence rather than punishment, if there is a choice.”

Sinha has taken charge at Sebi at a time when the regulator is handling a number of critical issues, including the new takeover code and the ownership and capital issue norms for market infrastructure institutions such as exchanges, depositories and clearing houses.

He expects the new takeover code to be in place ahead of framing rules for market infrastructure institutions on which a panel, headed by former Reserve Bank of India governor Bimal Jalan, submitted a report last year.

Sinha said the proposal to change takeover norms has been discussed at the Sebi board twice and will be finalized after government gives its suggestions.

On another contentious issue, allowing MCX Stock Exchange Ltd (MCX-SX) to trade in equities, he did not give a specific response as the case is being legally fought, but said Sebi will encourage competition.

“One of the areas of worry today is lack of competition. We will take policy measures to ensure that there is more competition,” he said. “Over the past three years particularly, the competition in the exchange industry has become concentrated. In some cases, a very high percentage of business is with one exchange.”

Sebi did not allow MCX-SX equity trading as it found the exchange did not fully conform with ownership norms.

In August 2009, Sebi had scrapped entry fees—an upfront commission paid by an investor for putting money in a mutual fund scheme. Since then, the mutual fund industry has been complaining about a decline in sales.

Sinha, who was then heading India’s fourth largest asset management firm, UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd, had vehemently opposed the ban.

The idea behind setting up a committee to look into the affairs of mutual fund industry is “to see how the growth of the industry can be accelerated, and to arrest the decline”.

Stating that the geographical reach of the industry has shrunk, Sinha said he will strive to “enhance the reach of the industry”.

Though many claim that the industry’s growth and reach have suffered following the entry load ban, between August 2009 and March 2011, investors have saved at least Rs. 2,500 crore in various schemes. The gross inflow during this period was about Rs. 1.15 trillion.

“Despite the entry loan ban in 2010, gross inflows in equity funds touched a three-year high,” a Morgan Stanley report in February said.

In a 5 May interview with AsianInvestor magazine, K.N. Vaidyanathan, executive director of Sebi, said he wanted the fund industry to grow in terms of muscle, and not fat. He also said asset management companies should grow steadily but not at the cost of investors’ money.

At a Mumbai seminar in 2010, Bhave had criticized the industry for running several schemes with suboptimal returns and launching one scheme after another that provided incentives only to distributors, but confused investors and failed to meet their expectations.

Sinha also plans to simplify disclosures made by firms in offer documents for IPOs and follow-on public offers (FPOs). It may force merchant bankers to disclose their track record in offer documents and clearly justify the pricing of an issue in a more transparent way.

Pricing of IPOs and FPOs has always remained a major concern in India.

In September, while addressing a conference of Association of Merchant Bankers of India, Bhave questioned the transparency of the merchant bankers while pricing IPOs and FPOs.

“If you look at maximizing the price for promoters, then obviously you are not looking after the interests of investors,” Bhave had said.

According to a Mint analysis, till the first week of May, 39 of the 56 IPOs that were launched during fiscal 2011 were trading below their offer prices.

“We are discussing what better information we can provide to the investors on pricing. For instance, if you are a merchant banker and you have done five issues in the last one year, can we provide the track record of you on those five issues?…For IPOs, can we disclose at a certain price...what is the price earning ratio of the stock?” said Sinha.

He also wants to simplify other market-entry procedures such as opening a demat account with a bank or an account with a brokerage to buy and sell shares.

“When somebody is trying to get registered with a broker and trying to open a demat account, I am told that there are 50 signatures required… All sorts of assertions and all sorts of obligations are made,” he said. “Obviously it is discouraging the retail investors. We would like to simplify that.”

Source: LiveMint

Tuesday, May 03, 2011

RBI announces increase in Savings Deposit Rate

The RBI today decided to increase the savings deposit rate from 3.5% currently to 4%. In the recent period, the spread (difference between interest rates) between savings bank deposit rates and fixed deposit rates have increased sharply. The hike in savings account rate was imperative considering that real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) on savings account balances have been in the negative for quite a while now.

This move will impact banks which have a high CASA (current account and savings account) base. The likes of SBI, HDFC Bank etc that have benefited from a larger proportion of low cost deposits will be seeing some margin pressure. However, the same will only be temporary before the benefit of a larger account base catches up. However, the RBI has not ruled out deregulation of the savings rate, a move that may see banks trying to cannibalize market share of their peers.

Blog Archive

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer - All investments in Mutual Funds and securities are subject to market risks and uncertainty of dividend distributions and the NAV of schemes may go up or down depending upon factors and forces affecting securities markets generally. The past performance of the schemes is not necessarily indicative of the future performance and may not necessarily provide a basis for comparison with other investments. Investors are advised to go through the respective offer documents before making any investment decisions. Prospective client(s) are advised to go through all comparable products in offer before taking any investment decisions. Mutual Funds and securities investments are subject to market risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the fund will be achieved. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. Decisions based on the information provided on this newsletter/document are for your own account and risk.


In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Varun Vaid has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the Varun Vaid and which may have been made available to Varun Vaid. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. Varun Vaid however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material no such party will assume any liability for the same. Varun Vaid does not in any way through this material solicit any offer for purchase, sale or any financial transaction/commodities/products of any financial instrument dealt in this material. All recipients of this material should before dealing and or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice.


Varun Vaid, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material. All recipients of this material should before dealing and/or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice. The investments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. Any person subscribing to or investigating in any product/financial instruments should do soon the basis of and after verifying the terms attached to such product/financial instrument. Financial products and instruments are subject to market risks and yields may fluctuate depending on various factors affecting capital/debt markets. Please note that past performance of the financial products and instruments does not necessarily indicate the future prospects and performance there of. Such past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Varun Vaid, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation in the financial instruments/products/commodities discussed here in or act as advisor or lender / borrower in respect of such securities/financial instruments/products/commodities or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The said person may have acted upon and/or in a manner contradictory with the information contained here. No part of this material may be duplicated in whole or in part in any form and or redistributed without the prior written consent of Varun Vaid. This material is strictly confidential to the recipient and should not be reproduced or disseminated to anyone else.


Varun Vaid also does not take any responsibility for the contents of the advertisements published. Readers are advised to verify the contents on their own before acting there upon.


Published Credits goes to following sources & all the mentioned sources as footer below the published material- Bloomberg, Valueresearch Online, Capital Market, Navindia, Franklin Templeton, Kitco, SBI AMC, LIC AMC, JM Financial AMC, HDFC AMC, The Hindu, Business Line, Personal FN, Economic Times, Reuters, Outlook Money, Business Standard, Times of India etc.